REITs showing their backbone as economy works to recover

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By Michael Siino

As with each subsector under the
umbrella of real estate, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on Real Estate
Investment Trusts (REITs) has been varied, creating opportunities and
challenges that seem likely to continue throughout the year ahead.

Within the various property
sectors owned by REITs, performance has reflected the current conditions of
those sectors in general. In sectors such as hospitality, retail and office, all
heavily affected by social distancing and shutdowns, REIT performance has
suffered. However, these sectors represent less than one-third of the REIT
industry.

For the remaining two-thirds, performance
has been at times substantially better, as the effect of social distancing has
not been as severe.

An in-depth look at the structure
of REITs and the performance of the broader real estate market is needed to
determine how REITs are positioned for recovery.

One key factor allowing REITs to
perform effectively over time is their ability to diversify. In whatever sector
they are focused, REITs benefit from the opportunity to gain access to
favorable financing through pooled investments, and by including properties
across geographic regions so as to avoid the effects of micro-economic
conditions.

While the effects of this
pandemic have not left any geographic area unscathed, prior to COVID-19, overall
leverage ratios on REITs were at historic lows. Because of this, and because
they have been able to strengthen their overall financial positions over time, REITs
have been able to withstand many of the harshest impacts felt by so many
industries during the COVID-19 crisis.

REITs were well prepared to
respond to changing economies and downturns created by any number of external
factors, including the pandemic.

That is not to say that the
changing landscape within the real estate industry will not have a lasting
effect on REITs.

Businesses are reconsidering whether it remains necessary to work from traditional office locations to the same degree as they had in the past, and the success of remote work has surpassed even the most optimistic projections. It is likely that flexible work arrangements, shared spaces and video conferences will continue to find a place in the new office environment. A reduction in daily staff population may be offset by allowing for a larger footprint per employee, in case another public health crisis arises and social distancing is required. These unknowns make it increasingly necessary for owners and landlords to adapt.

“As long-term leases expire and new leases are written, creatively addressing tenants’ concerns and adding flexibility to lease terms could allow for recovery of the office sector and of those REITs associated with it.”

As long-term leases expire and
new leases are written, creatively addressing tenants’ concerns and adding
flexibility to lease terms could allow for recovery of the office sector and of
those REITs associated with it.

If businesses in industries hit hardest by the pandemic continue
to experience significant downturns and are forced to shutter, tenants will
continue vacating commercial spaces, and the likelihood of this excess
available space being reinhabited remains difficult to anticipate. The impact
on the commercial real estate industry will affect REITs as well. However, whereas
hotel and hospitality REITs have suffered and are expected to continue
struggling until business and vacation travel regain momentum, other sectors such
as industrial REITs have fared far better, due in large part to the
predominance of long-term leases with contractual increases.

Retail REITs remain challenged as the move towards online
shopping continues to accelerate. As it relates to REITs focused in the single
family housing and data center sectors, NAREIT reports that demand has
increased, which will lead to recovery and growth in those sectors.

Overall, the attractiveness of
REIT investments remains intact—REITs can provide short-term and regular
dividends, as well as long-term capital appreciation.

They are managed with the goal of
maximizing shareholder value, by positioning their assets in such ways as to
improve value in the short-term as well as over time. REITs have performed well
when compared to similar indexes, and often offer significantly higher value
than many other classes of investment.

 While it is difficult to make a general
assumption on the recovery of REITs as a whole, a closer look at the individual
sectors within real estate and the REIT market reveals varying challenges and
prospects for short- or long-term recovery.

While REITs have not been immune to
the pervasive effect that the pandemic has had on the economy and on the real
estate industry, the level of impact and the prospects for impending recovery
depend on the sub-sector within which they are focused.

Today’s low interest rate
environment has helped to soften the impact of the crisis and will likely aid
in the recovery across all sectors, as debt becomes due and refinances can be
done on favorable terms.

While the economy and the real
estate industry continue to fluctuate, investors may take a more selective
approach to which sector they invest in and into which REIT they put their
trust, but the recovery of REITs will continue to reflect the strength and
resilience of the real estate market as a whole.

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